These three long-term measures monitor the yield curve, forward-looking economic data, and unemployment for evidence that the US economy may be entering or already experiencing a recession.
No single economic indicator can date a recession with certainty. Signals can arrive early, late, or conflict as the economy evolves. Taken together, these models provide a practical view of recession risk and the evidence behind it.
Only three indicators are shown below. Explore our site for more comprehensive analysis and tools, or become a member for full access to all models and insights, updated weekly.
Valuation Dashboard
See our key long-term indicators for whether US stock prices are historically overvalued or undervalued.
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Explore membershipYield Curve
The Treasury yield curve compares interest rates on government bonds with different maturities. Under normal conditions, long-term bonds yield more than short-term bonds. When short-term yields rise above long-term yields, the curve inverts, reflecting tighter financial conditions and expectations for slower economic growth.
As of June 30, 2026, the 10-year to 3-month Treasury spread is 0.51 percentage points. The CMV Yield Curve model currently classifies the signal as Very High. Historically, inversions have often preceded recessions, but the timing varies and an inversion alone does not establish that a recession has begun.
Leading Economic Index
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index combines ten forward-looking measures, including employment, manufacturing orders, building permits, financial conditions, and consumer expectations. It is designed to identify changes in the business cycle before they become visible in broad economic data.
As of April 30, 2026, the Leading Economic Index is 97.40 compared with its 12-month moving average of 98.13. The CMV model classifies the economic backdrop as High. A sustained decline can indicate rising recession risk, though the index should be read alongside other economic indicators.
Sahm Rule
The Sahm Rule identifies a possible recession when the three-month average unemployment rate rises at least 0.5 percentage points above its lowest point over the previous year. Unlike many leading indicators, it is intended to identify a recession after labor-market deterioration has become established.
As of May 31, 2026, the unemployment rate is 4.3%, with a three-month average of 4.30%. The Sahm Rule score is 0.13 percentage points above its prior 12-month low, and the model classifies recession risk as Normal.
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