Welcome to CMV

Current Market Valuation tracks various economic models highlighting the current state of the US stock market and broader economy. This data is an educational resource to better understand market and business cycles. While these cycles often correlate well with stock performance, the analysis should not be used as a short term trading strategy. If you're looking for investment advice, you can find our perspective here.

Each of our models uses historical data to determine a baseline, and expresses current values in terms of the current data's number of standard deviations above or below that baseline trend. More information on model ratings is available here.

We are supported by members, who enjoy more frequent model updates and other additional content.



Featured In


Aggregate Market Value Index

Available only to members, this is our aggregate score of the current valuation of the US stock market.

See how the index correlates against future stock market returns.

Market Valuation Models





Recession Indicator Models



Market Sentiment Models






Other Posts


Picking Stocks Does Not Work

Posted August 30, 2023

Picking Stocks Does Not Work

Sorry, picking stocks in your own portfolio is a terrible idea and you shouldn't be doing it.

How to Invest in AI, by AI

Posted July 29, 2023

How to Invest in AI, by AI

We asked an AI engine to explain the best AI investments available to retail investors

Why You Must Diversify: Very Few Stocks Outperform Government Bonds

Posted July 09, 2023

Why You Must Diversify: Very Few Stocks Outperform Government Bonds

The surprising truth about stock performance versus Treasury bills and the key role of diversification in successful investing

Why Good Jobs Data Can Spook the Stock Market

Posted July 07, 2023

Why Good Jobs Data Can Spook the Stock Market

Why does the stock market decline after surprisingly strong wage and umployment numbers?

You Should Use Money Market Funds

Posted April 10, 2023

You Should Use Money Market Funds

Money market funds have competitive yields, high liquidity, and offer portfolio diversification, while minimizing risk in a rising interest rate environment.

How SVB Lost Their Bank

Posted March 12, 2023

How SVB Lost Their Bank

How to lose a bank in 48 hours.

2023 Predictions

Posted December 29, 2022

2023 Predictions

Economic and market predictions for 2023. General guesses and lukewarm takes, not trading advice.

Market Performance During Recessions

Posted November 04, 2022

Market Performance During Recessions

In the 11 recessions since 1950, the S&P500 drops an average 20% during the recession, and then recovers almost 40% in the following 18 months.

How the Fed Changes Interest Rates

Posted October 28, 2022

How the Fed Changes Interest Rates

A quick breakdown on how the Fed actually implements interest rate changes, post-2008.